Every time the world seems to have nailed the problem of maintaining stable economic growth, something nasty happens. The South Sea Bubble, the Wall Street Crash and Black Wednesday are examples of costly “readjustments” that left many fingers badly burned.

The science of predicting the likelihood of these glitches is known as Econometrics. Complex mathematical and statistical models are developed

so that catastrophe can be avoided before it happens.

It is the field in which Professor Clive Granger is an acknowledged world leader, his status confirmed by the 2003 Nobel Prize for Economics- that he shared with American Robert Engle. While Engle specialises in the financial markets, Granger’s forte is Macroeconomics- the bigger picture.

Econometrics is highly sophisticated discipline and Granger’s is not a story of overnight success. The work for which he won his Nobel Prize dates back as far as 1975. He was considered a contender for the most prestigious honour in economics for the previous ten years

Clive Granger was born at Swansea where he spent much of his childhood before his family moved to the English midlands. He studied economics at Nottingham University before going to a succession of high-flying academic and research posts in Britain and America. He was for many years a professor at the University of California.

He is currently based at Canterbury in New Zealand where he is a visiting professor and where he heard news of his greatest recognition.

“I have had other honours but you can"t beat this one. It"s the top." He told the local press. He is among three Nobel Laureates included in 100 Welsh Heroes. The others are Brian Josephson (Physics,1973) and Bertrand Russell (Literature, 1950).